# Russia-Ukraine War Explained: Why Putin Invaded, What's Happening Now, and How It Could End > Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 — here's why it happened, how the war is going, and what the possible outcomes are. *Section: World — By Liam Chen (World Affairs Reporter) — Published July 14, 2026 — 7 min read* Canonical URL: https://dailyjunction.org/world/russia-ukraine-war-explained-2026 Tags: Russia, Ukraine, war, Putin, NATO, invasion, conflict, Eastern Europe ## Key takeaways - Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022 with 190,000 troops, aiming to capture Kyiv and overthrow the government, but was repelled after 1 month - The war has killed 500,000+ people (300,000+ Russian soldiers, 200,000+ Ukrainian soldiers/civilians) and displaced 8 million Ukrainians - Russia controls 18% of Ukraine (Crimea since 2014, plus Donbas and southern regions captured in 2022), but Ukraine recaptured 50% of occupied territory in 2022-2023 - The West has provided $200+ billion in military and financial aid to Ukraine (USA $100bn, EU $80bn, UK £12bn), including tanks, artillery, and F-16 jets - The war could end with: Ukraine victory (Russia withdraws), frozen conflict (Korea-style stalemate), or Russian victory (Ukraine forced to cede territory), with frozen conflict most likely On **24 February 2022**, **Russia** invaded **Ukraine** with **190,000 troops**, launching the largest war in Europe since World War II. Russia expected a quick victory — capturing the capital **Kyiv** in **3–5 days** and overthrowing the government. But Ukraine fought back, repelling the invasion of Kyiv and forcing Russia to retreat. The war has now lasted **over 2.5 years**, killed **500,000+ people**, displaced **8 million Ukrainians**, and cost the global economy **$1 trillion**. Russia controls **18% of Ukraine** (Crimea since 2014, plus Donbas and southern regions captured in 2022), but Ukraine has recaptured **50% of occupied territory** in 2022–2023. The West has provided **$200+ billion in aid** to Ukraine, including tanks, artillery, and F-16 jets. Here is everything you need to know about the Russia-Ukraine war — why it happened, how it is going, and how it could end. ## Why Did Russia Invade? ### 1. NATO expansion **NATO** (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) is a military alliance of **32 countries** (including USA, UK, France, Germany) pledged to defend each other. Ukraine wanted to join NATO, which would put NATO troops on Russia's border. **Putin** sees NATO expansion as an **existential threat** to Russia. He has repeatedly said that Ukraine joining NATO is a "red line" that Russia will not tolerate. Russia argues that NATO promised not to expand eastward after the Cold War (disputed — no formal agreement exists), but NATO has expanded from **16 members in 1990** to **32 members in 2024**, including former Soviet states (Poland, Baltic states, Romania, Bulgaria). ### 2. Imperial ambitions Putin believes that **Ukraine is part of Russia's sphere of influence** and that Ukrainians and Russians are "one people". He has said that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century". Putin wants to restore **Russian greatness** and sees Ukraine as a core part of that project. He has written essays arguing that Ukraine is not a real country and that it should be part of Russia. ### 3. Domestic politics The war distracts from Russia's **economic problems** (stagnant economy, corruption, inequality) and strengthens Putin's grip on power. War rallies the population around the leader and silences dissent. ### 4. Miscalculation Putin expected a **quick victory** — capturing Kyiv in 3–5 days, overthrowing the government, and installing a pro-Russian puppet. He underestimated: - **Ukrainian resistance** — Ukrainians fought fiercely to defend their country - **Western support** — the West provided $200+ billion in military and financial aid - **Russian military weakness** — Russia's military was poorly trained, poorly equipped, and poorly led ## The Invasion (February 2022) On **24 February 2022**, Russia invaded Ukraine with **190,000 troops** from three directions: - **North** (from Belarus) — aiming to capture Kyiv - **East** (from Russia) — aiming to capture Donbas - **South** (from Crimea) — aiming to capture southern Ukraine and link Crimea to Russia ### The Battle of Kyiv (February–March 2022) Russia sent a **40-mile convoy** of tanks and troops towards Kyiv, expecting to capture the capital in **3–5 days**. But Ukraine fought back: - **Ukrainian forces** ambushed Russian convoys, destroying tanks and supply trucks - **Kyiv's defences held** — Ukraine's military and civilian volunteers defended the city - **Western weapons** (Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles) destroyed Russian armour After **1 month**, Russia **withdrew from Kyiv** (April 2022), suffering heavy losses (10,000+ soldiers killed, hundreds of tanks destroyed). It was a **humiliating defeat** for Russia. ### The shift to the east (April 2022–present) After failing to capture Kyiv, Russia shifted its focus to **eastern and southern Ukraine** (Donbas, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia). Russia made slow progress, capturing **20% of Ukraine** by June 2022. ## Ukrainian Counteroffensives (2022–2023) ### Kharkiv offensive (September 2022) Ukraine launched a surprise offensive in **Kharkiv** (northeast Ukraine), recapturing **6,000 square km** in **1 week**. Russia retreated in chaos, abandoning tanks, weapons, and supplies. ### Kherson offensive (November 2022) Ukraine recaptured **Kherson** (southern Ukraine), the only regional capital Russia had captured. Russia withdrew across the Dnipro River, blowing up bridges behind them. ### 2023 counteroffensive (June–October 2023) Ukraine launched a major offensive to recapture southern Ukraine and cut the land bridge to Crimea. But the offensive **stalled** — Russia had built **deep defences** (minefields, trenches, fortifications), and Ukraine lacked air superiority. Ukraine recaptured **small amounts of territory** but at **high cost** (thousands of casualties). The offensive was a **disappointment**. ## The Current Situation (July 2024) ### Territory - **Russia controls 18% of Ukraine** (Crimea, Donbas, parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia) - **Ukraine has recaptured 50% of occupied territory** (from the peak of 27% in June 2022) - The front line has been **largely static** since late 2023 ### Casualties - **500,000+ killed** (300,000+ Russian soldiers, 200,000+ Ukrainian soldiers and civilians) - **8 million Ukrainians displaced** (6 million internally, 2 million refugees in Europe) ### Western support The West has provided **$200+ billion in aid** to Ukraine: - **USA**: $100 billion (military and financial aid) - **EU**: $80 billion (military, financial, and humanitarian aid) - **UK**: £12 billion (military and financial aid) Western weapons include: - **Tanks** (Challenger 2, Leopard 2, Abrams) - **Artillery** (HIMARS, M777 howitzers) - **Air defence** (Patriot missiles, NASAMS) - **F-16 fighter jets** (arriving 2024) ### Russian losses Russia has lost: - **300,000+ soldiers killed or wounded** - **3,000+ tanks destroyed** (50% of pre-war tank force) - **5,000+ armoured vehicles destroyed** - **300+ aircraft destroyed** Russia is recruiting **30,000 soldiers per month** to replace losses, but quality is declining (older men, prisoners, poorly trained conscripts). ### Economic impact - **Russia's economy** has shrunk **3%** (2022) due to Western sanctions, but has rebounded to **2% growth** (2023–2024) due to high oil prices and trade with China, India, and Turkey - **Ukraine's economy** has shrunk **30%** (2022) and remains in recession - **Global economy** has lost **$1 trillion** (higher energy prices, food shortages, supply chain disruption) ## How Could the War End? ### Scenario 1: Ukrainian victory Ukraine recaptures all occupied territory (including Crimea) and Russia withdraws. This would require: - **Continued Western support** (weapons, money) - **Russian military collapse** (running out of troops, weapons, or will to fight) - **Putin's removal** (coup, assassination, or political collapse) **Likelihood**: **Low**. Russia has more troops and weapons than Ukraine, and can sustain losses longer. A full Ukrainian victory is possible but difficult. ### Scenario 2: Frozen conflict The war ends in a **stalemate** (like Korea 1950–1953), with Russia controlling 18% of Ukraine and a ceasefire but no peace treaty. Ukraine does not recognise Russian control, but fighting stops. **Likelihood**: **High**. This is the most likely outcome. Both sides are exhausted, and neither can achieve a decisive victory. A frozen conflict allows both sides to claim victory (Russia keeps territory, Ukraine survives) while avoiding further losses. ### Scenario 3: Russian victory Russia captures more territory and forces Ukraine to cede land (Crimea, Donbas, southern regions) in a peace deal. Ukraine agrees to stay out of NATO. **Likelihood**: **Medium**. This could happen if: - **Western support collapses** (e.g., Trump wins 2024 US election and cuts aid) - **Ukraine runs out of troops** (Ukraine has mobilised 1 million soldiers but is running low on manpower) - **Russia escalates** (e.g., uses tactical nuclear weapons) ### Scenario 4: Escalation The war escalates to **direct NATO-Russia conflict** or **nuclear war**. This would be catastrophic (millions dead, global economic collapse). **Likelihood**: **Low but not zero**. Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons if Russia faces an "existential threat". The West is careful to avoid direct conflict (no NATO troops in Ukraine), but accidents or miscalculations could trigger escalation. ## The UK's Role The UK has been one of Ukraine's strongest supporters: - **£12 billion in aid** (military, financial, humanitarian) - **Military training** (trained 30,000+ Ukrainian soldiers) - **Weapons** (Challenger 2 tanks, Storm Shadow missiles, air defence systems) - **Sanctions on Russia** (freezing assets, banning trade, targeting oligarchs) The UK has also provided **intelligence** and **diplomatic support** (rallying European allies, pushing for tougher sanctions). ## The Bottom Line Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022 with 190,000 troops, aiming to capture Kyiv and overthrow the government, but was repelled after 1 month. The war has killed 500,000+ people (300,000+ Russian soldiers, 200,000+ Ukrainian soldiers/civilians) and displaced 8 million Ukrainians. Russia controls 18% of Ukraine (Crimea since 2014, plus Donbas and southern regions captured in 2022), but Ukraine recaptured 50% of occupied territory in 2022-2023. The West has provided $200+ billion in military and financial aid to Ukraine (USA $100bn, EU $80bn, UK £12bn), including tanks, artillery, and F-16 jets. The war could end with: Ukraine victory (Russia withdraws), frozen conflict (Korea-style stalemate), or Russian victory (Ukraine forced to cede territory), with frozen conflict most likely. The Russia-Ukraine war is the largest conflict in Europe since World War II, and it has reshaped global geopolitics. Russia has been weakened militarily and economically, but it retains 18% of Ukraine and shows no sign of giving up. Ukraine has defied expectations by surviving and recapturing territory, but it faces a long, grinding war of attrition. The West has united behind Ukraine, but support may waver if the war drags on. The most likely outcome is a frozen conflict — a stalemate with no peace treaty, like Korea. But the war could also escalate (nuclear weapons, NATO involvement) or end in Ukrainian victory (if Russia collapses). The next 1-2 years will be decisive. ## Frequently asked questions ### Why did Putin invade Ukraine? Multiple reasons: 1) NATO expansion — Putin sees Ukraine joining NATO as an existential threat to Russia. 2) Imperial ambitions — Putin believes Ukraine is part of Russia's sphere of influence and wants to restore Russian greatness. 3) Domestic politics — the war distracts from Russia's economic problems and strengthens Putin's grip on power. 4) Miscalculation — Putin expected a quick victory (3-5 days) but underestimated Ukrainian resistance. ### Could the war go nuclear? Possible but unlikely. Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons if Russia faces an 'existential threat', and Russia has 6,000 nuclear warheads. But using nukes would trigger NATO retaliation (possibly nuclear), devastate Russia economically, and turn China against Russia. Most analysts think Putin is bluffing, but the risk is real and terrifying. ### Will Ukraine win? Unclear. Ukraine has defied expectations by repelling Russia's initial invasion and recapturing 50% of occupied territory. But Russia still controls 18% of Ukraine, has more troops and weapons, and can sustain losses longer. A Ukrainian victory (full liberation) is possible but difficult. A frozen conflict (Korea-style stalemate) is more likely. ## Sources - [BBC News — Ukraine war coverage](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe) - [The Guardian — Russia-Ukraine war](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ukraine) - [Institute for the Study of War — Daily updates](https://www.understandingwar.org/) - [UK Government — Ukraine support](https://www.gov.uk/government/topical-events/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-uk-government-response) --- Daily Junction — https://dailyjunction.org/world/russia-ukraine-war-explained-2026