Chow Still Ahead in Toronto Mayoral Race, but Bradford Is Closing In, Poll Finds

With Toronto's municipal election approaching, fresh polling suggests Mayor Olivia Chow retains her lead — though challenger Brad Bradford is steadily eating into it, and the mayor's approval numbers are drifting downward.

The Liaison Strategies survey, released Tuesday, found that if a vote were held today, 49 per cent of decided voters would back Chow against 40 per cent for Bradford, with a further 10 per cent opting for someone else.

David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, characterized the contest as Chow's to lose while acknowledging the challenger's trajectory. "She leads by nine points among decided voters and eight points among all voters. But the movement since May is toward Bradford," he said, adding: "Among decided voters, Chow is essentially flat, moving from 50 per cent to 49 per cent, while Bradford is up from 37 per cent to 40 per cent."

Counting all voters, Bradford has climbed from 28 per cent in May to 32 per cent, while undecideds have shrunk from 24 per cent to 20 per cent.

"So the question is not whether Bradford has momentum. He does. The question is whether he has enough time and runway to make the race genuinely tied," Valentin said.

Even with a comfortable cushion in the horse race, Chow's job approval has softened. Half of respondents — 50 per cent — approve of her performance as mayor, down from 54 per cent in May. That is her weakest showing since September 2025, though still net positive.

On the city's overall direction, Torontonians split right down the middle: 46 per cent said Toronto is on the right track, an identical 46 per cent said it is going the wrong way, and 8 per cent weren't sure.

Bradford's bigger problem may be recognition. The poll found 29 per cent of respondents hold a favourable view of the councillor, 23 per cent an unfavourable one, 13 per cent are undecided, and 35 per cent say they don't know him at all. "That means nearly half the city either does not know Bradford or has not made up its mind about him. There is an opportunity in that, but also a risk," Valentin explained, noting: "Voters are open to learning more about him, but he is not yet as defined as the mayor."

The survey also gauged sentiment on Toronto's turn as a FIFA World Cup host city, and residents were largely positive. Sixty-one per cent said hosting World Cup matches has been good for Toronto — 23 per cent called it "very good" — while 29 per cent said it has been bad for the city. Appetite for more marquee events runs strong too: 63 per cent want Toronto to pursue additional major global competitions, against 25 per cent opposed.

Liaison Strategies polled a random sample of 1,000 Toronto residents from June 28 to June 30, 2026, using Interactive Voice Response technology. The results carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.