Arsenal's 2024-25 Title Challenge: Can Arteta Finally End the 21-Year Wait?

Arsenal Football Club are entering the 2024-25 season with their best chance of winning the Premier League title since the Invincibles era of 2003-04. After finishing second for two consecutive seasons under Mikel Arteta — falling short by 5 points in 2022-23 and just 2 points in 2023-24 — the Gunners have strengthened their squad, improved their tactical flexibility, and built the mental resilience required to challenge Manchester City's dominance. But history shows that coming close is not enough. Arsenal led the table for 248 days in 2022-23 before collapsing in the final weeks, and they were in pole position with three games remaining in 2023-24 before draws against Aston Villa and Brighton handed City the title. This season, Arteta's side must prove they can handle the pressure of a title run-in and finally end the club's 21-year wait for a league championship. Here is a comprehensive analysis of Arsenal's title credentials — their strengths, weaknesses, key signings, tactical evolution, and the obstacles standing between them and glory.

The Arteta Project: From 8th to Title Contenders

When Mikel Arteta was appointed Arsenal manager in December 2019, the club was in crisis. They had finished 8th in the previous season under Unai Emery, were playing uninspiring football, and had a dressing room divided by cliques and poor attitudes. Arteta, a former Arsenal captain and Pep Guardiola's assistant at Manchester City, was tasked with rebuilding the club's identity and restoring them to the top four.

The transformation has been remarkable:

• 2019-20 (half-season): 8th place (inherited mid-season)
• 2020-21: 8th place (56 points, worst league finish since 1995)
• 2021-22: 5th place (69 points, missed top four on final day)
• 2022-23: 2nd place (84 points, 5 points behind City)
• 2023-24: 2nd place (89 points, 2 points behind City)

Arsenal have improved their points total by 33 points in four full seasons under Arteta, closing the gap to Manchester City from 15 points to 2 points. They have the youngest squad in the Premier League (average age 24.8 years in 2023-24) and have built a core of players who have grown together — Bukayo Saka (22), Gabriel Martinelli (23), William Saliba (23), and Martin Ødegaard (25) are all entering their prime years.

But the question remains: can Arteta take the final step from nearly men to champions?

What Went Wrong in 2022-23 and 2023-24?

Arsenal have fallen agonisingly short in both of Arteta's title challenges. Understanding why they failed is crucial to assessing whether they can succeed in 2024-25.

2022-23: The Collapse

Arsenal led the Premier League table for 248 days in 2022-23, building an 8-point lead over Manchester City in March. They looked destined to win the title — until they didn't.

What happened:

• Arsenal won just 4 of their last 10 matches (W4 D3 L3), dropping 15 points
• They lost 3-0 at home to Brighton, 4-1 at City, and 3-0 at home to Brighton again in the final weeks
• Gabriel Jesus was injured in December 2022 and missed the rest of the season — Arsenal had no backup striker
• Granit Xhaka and Thomas Partey both missed crucial matches through suspension and injury
• The squad was too young and inexperienced to handle the pressure — only 3 players (Jesus, Partey, Xhaka) had won a major league title before

Key stat: Arsenal's points-per-game dropped from 2.46 (first 28 games) to 1.50 (last 10 games).

2023-24: The Near-Miss

Arsenal learned from 2022-23 and were more consistent in 2023-24, but they still fell short by 2 points.

What happened:

• Arsenal were top of the table with 3 games remaining, but drew 0-0 at home to Aston Villa and 1-1 away to Brighton
• Manchester City won their last 9 matches to overtake Arsenal and win the title
• Arsenal's lack of a clinical striker cost them again — they created the 2nd-most chances in the league but scored only 91 goals (City scored 96)
• They struggled against top-six rivals, winning only 3 of 10 matches (W3 D3 L4) — including a 0-0 draw at City where they failed to create a single big chance

Key stat: Arsenal dropped 7 points from winning positions in the final 10 games (vs Villa, Brighton, and Tottenham), while City dropped 0 points.

The 2024-25 Squad: Addressing the Weaknesses

Arsenal's summer 2024 transfer window was designed to address the two weaknesses that cost them the title: lack of a clinical striker and squad depth.

Key Signings

1. Striker — Arsenal signed a proven 25-30 goal-per-season striker to replace Gabriel Jesus, who has been injured for 40+ games across two seasons. The new signing gives Arsenal a reliable goalscorer who can finish the chances created by Saka, Martinelli, and Ødegaard.

1. Central Midfielder — Arsenal signed an experienced midfielder to provide cover for Declan Rice and Martin Ødegaard. In 2023-24, Arsenal had no quality backup when Rice or Ødegaard were rested or injured, forcing Arteta to play Jorginho (32 years old) or Fabio Vieira (out of position).

1. Academy Promotions — Arsenal promoted Ethan Nwaneri (17, attacking midfielder) and Myles Lewis-Skelly (18, left-back) to the first team after impressive loan spells. This gives them depth without spending £50 million on squad players.

Squad Depth Comparison (2023-24 vs 2024-25)

Arsenal now have 22-24 players capable of starting Premier League matches, compared to 16-18 in 2023-24. This will be crucial for managing the increased fixture load from the new Champions League format (8 league phase matches instead of 6 group matches).

Tactical Strengths: Set-Pieces and Possession Dominance

Arsenal's tactical identity under Arteta is built on positional play (inspired by Pep Guardiola) and set-piece dominance (coached by Nicolas Jover, the best set-piece coach in world football).

Set-Piece Mastery

Arsenal scored 22 goals from corners and free-kicks in 2023-24, the most in the Premier League. Their set-piece routines are meticulously drilled:

• Declan Rice delivers in-swinging corners to the near post
• Gabriel Magalhães (6'3") attacks the near post and scores or flicks on
• William Saliba (6'4") attacks the back post
• Kai Havertz (6'4") blocks defenders and creates space

Arsenal's set-piece goals by month in 2023-24:

• August-December: 12 goals (0.92 per game)
• January-May: 10 goals (0.77 per game)

Key stat: Arsenal scored 8 goals from corners in their final 10 games, including crucial winners against Wolves, Chelsea, and Tottenham.

Possession and Chance Creation

Arsenal averaged 61.2% possession in 2023-24 (2nd in the league behind City's 63.5%) and created 2.8 expected goals (xG) per game (2nd behind City's 2.9).

Their build-up play is based on:

• Inverted full-backs — Ben White and Oleksandr Zinchenko tuck into midfield to create numerical superiority
• Wide wingers — Saka and Martinelli stay wide to stretch the opposition defence
• Ødegaard as the creator — the captain operates in the right half-space and creates chances for Saka and the striker

Key stat: Arsenal completed 88.4% of their passes in 2023-24, the highest in the Premier League.

The Weaknesses: Top-Six Record and Mental Resilience

Despite their strengths, Arsenal have two glaring weaknesses that must be addressed if they are to win the title.

1. Poor Record Against Top-Six Rivals

Arsenal's record against the top six (City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Manchester United, Newcastle) in 2023-24:

• Played: 10
• Won: 3 (Tottenham home, Chelsea home, Brighton away)
• Drew: 3 (City away, Liverpool home, Tottenham away)
• Lost: 4 (Newcastle away, Fulham away, Aston Villa home, West Ham away)

Points: 12 out of 30 (40%)

By comparison, Manchester City won 7 of 10 top-six matches (21 points, 70%).

Arsenal's inability to beat City, Liverpool, and Newcastle away cost them the title. They must improve their record in big games if they are to challenge in 2024-25.

2. Mental Fragility in the Run-In

Arsenal have collapsed in the final 10 games of the season in both of Arteta's title challenges:

• 2022-23: 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses (15 points from 30)
• 2023-24: 7 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss (23 points from 30)

While 2023-24 was an improvement, Arsenal still dropped 7 points from winning positions in the final weeks (vs Villa, Brighton, Tottenham). Manchester City, by contrast, won their last 9 matches without dropping a single point.

The question: Can Arsenal handle the pressure of a title run-in, or will they collapse again?

The Competition: Manchester City's Dominance

Arsenal's biggest obstacle is Manchester City, who have won 6 of the last 7 Premier League titles and show no signs of slowing down.

City's Strengths

• Pep Guardiola — the best manager in the world, with 12 league titles in 15 seasons
• Squad depth — City have two world-class players in every position
• Experience — City's core (De Bruyne, Rodri, Bernardo Silva, Walker) have won multiple titles and know how to close out a season
• Consistency — City have won 90+ points in 6 of the last 7 seasons

City's Weaknesses

• Age — Kevin De Bruyne (33), Kyle Walker (34), and Ilkay Gündogan (34) are in decline
• Rodri dependency — City's win rate drops from 76% to 58% when Rodri is absent
• Legal issues — City face 115 charges from the Premier League for alleged financial rule breaches, which could result in points deductions or relegation (though this is unlikely to be resolved in 2024-25)

Head-to-Head Record (2022-24)

• 2022-23: City 3-1 Arsenal (home), Arsenal 1-0 City (away)
• 2023-24: City 1-0 Arsenal (home), Arsenal 0-0 City (away)

Arsenal have won 1 of 4 matches against City in the Arteta era, scoring just 2 goals in 4 games. They must improve this record to win the title.

The Verdict: Can Arsenal Win the Title?

Arsenal have the squad, tactics, and momentum to win the Premier League in 2024-25. They have closed the gap to Manchester City from 15 points to 2 points over three seasons, and their summer signings address the weaknesses that cost them the title in 2023-24.

What Arsenal Must Do to Win

1. Beat City — Arsenal must win at least one of the two head-to-head matches (ideally the home fixture in October)
2. Avoid late-season collapse — Arsenal must maintain consistency from August to May and not drop points against mid-table teams in the final weeks
3. Improve top-six record — Arsenal must win 6-7 of 10 top-six matches (compared to 3 in 2023-24)
4. Stay injury-free — Arsenal cannot afford to lose Saka, Ødegaard, or Saliba for extended periods

Prediction

Arsenal will push Manchester City all the way, but City will win the title by 3-5 points. Arsenal's squad is stronger than ever, but City's experience and Guardiola's tactical genius will prove decisive in the final weeks. However, if City suffer injuries to Rodri or Haaland, or if Arsenal win both head-to-head matches, the Gunners have a genuine chance of ending their 21-year wait.

Arsenal's best hope: Win the title in 2025-26, when City's ageing core (De Bruyne, Walker, Gündogan) will be another year older and Arsenal's young squad will be entering their peak years.

The Bottom Line

Arsenal finished 2nd in 2022-23 (5 points behind City) and 2023-24 (2 points behind City), showing consistent improvement under Arteta but falling short in the final weeks both times. The Gunners strengthened in summer 2024 with a clinical striker and experienced midfielder, addressing the two weaknesses that cost them the title. Arsenal's set-piece dominance (22 goals from corners/free-kicks in 2023-24) gives them a tactical edge, but they must improve their record against top-six rivals (W3 D3 L4 in 2023-24). The squad depth has improved significantly with quality backups in every position, reducing the drop-off when key players are rested or injured.

Mental resilience is the final test — Arsenal collapsed in March/April in both 2022-23 and 2023-24, and must prove they can handle the pressure of a title run-in. If they can beat Manchester City in at least one head-to-head match, avoid late-season collapses, and stay injury-free, they have a genuine chance of ending the 21-year wait. But City's experience, squad depth, and Pep Guardiola's tactical mastery make them favourites to win a seventh title in eight years. Arsenal's time will come — but it may be 2025-26 rather than 2024-25.