Brexit Explained: What Actually Changed, What It Cost, and Was It Worth It?

Brexit — the UK's departure from the European Union — happened on 31 January 2020, ending 47 years of EU membership. The transition period ended on 31 December 2020, and the UK left the EU single market and customs union. It has been 4 years since Brexit, and the results are in: Brexit has cost the UK economy £100 billion (4% of GDP) by 2024 through reduced trade, investment, and productivity, with no measurable economic benefits. UK-EU trade fell 25% after Brexit due to customs checks, paperwork, and tariffs, while immigration rose to record highs (745,000 net in 2022) despite Leave promises. The UK regained sovereignty over laws, borders, and trade, but 90% of EU regulations remain in UK law and Northern Ireland still follows EU rules. Here is everything you need to know about Brexit — what actually changed, what it cost, and whether Leave voters got what they wanted.

What Was Brexit?

Brexit (British exit) was the UK's decision to leave the European Union (EU), following a referendum on 23 June 2016.

The referendum result

• Leave: 51.9% (17.4 million votes)
• Remain: 48.1% (16.1 million votes)
• Turnout: 72.2%

The result was close, divisive, and split the country:

• England: 53.4% Leave
• Wales: 52.5% Leave
• Scotland: 62% Remain
• Northern Ireland: 55.8% Remain

The Leave campaign promises

The Leave campaign (Vote Leave, Leave.EU) promised:

1. £350 million per week for the NHS (by saving EU membership fees)
2. Control immigration (end free movement from EU)
3. Take back control (sovereignty over laws, borders, trade)
4. Trade deals with the world (better than EU membership)
5. Economic opportunity (Brexit would make the UK richer)

The timeline

• 23 June 2016: Referendum (Leave wins 52-48%)
• 29 March 2017: UK triggers Article 50 (formal process to leave EU)
• 31 January 2020: UK leaves EU (Brexit Day)
• 31 December 2020: Transition period ends (UK leaves single market and customs union)

What Actually Changed?

1. Trade with the EU

The UK left the EU single market and customs union, creating a trade barrier between the UK and EU.

Before Brexit: Frictionless trade (no customs checks, no paperwork, no tariffs)

After Brexit: Customs checks, paperwork, and tariffs on some goods

Impact:

• UK-EU trade fell 25% (2021-2024 vs 2016-2019)
• Exports to EU fell 16%
• Imports from EU fell 25%
• Small businesses stopped exporting to EU (too much paperwork, too expensive)

Example: A UK business exporting £10,000 of goods to France now faces:

• Customs declaration (£50-£100)
• Tariffs (0-10% depending on product)
• Delays (1-3 days at border)
• VAT complications (must register for VAT in France)

Many small businesses have stopped exporting to the EU because it is too expensive and complicated.

2. Immigration

Brexit ended free movement from the EU, but immigration rose to record highs.

Before Brexit: EU citizens could live and work in the UK without a visa (free movement)

After Brexit: EU citizens need a visa (points-based system)

Impact:

• Net immigration: 745,000 (2022), 672,000 (2023) — record highs
• EU immigration: Fell from 200,000 per year to 50,000 per year
• Non-EU immigration: Rose from 250,000 per year to 700,000 per year (India, Nigeria, Pakistan, China)

Why did immigration rise?

The government replaced EU free movement with a points-based system that allows more non-EU immigration. The government could reduce immigration (it controls the system), but it chooses not to because:

• Businesses need workers (hospitality, care, NHS, agriculture)
• Universities need international students (£10 billion revenue per year)
• The economy needs growth (population growth drives GDP growth)

Leave voters wanted less immigration, but got more immigration (just from different countries).

3. Sovereignty

The UK regained sovereignty over laws, borders, and trade.

Before Brexit: EU laws applied in the UK (via EU directives and regulations)

After Brexit: UK Parliament makes all laws

Impact:

• 90% of EU regulations remain in UK law (the government has not repealed them because they are useful — product standards, workers' rights, environmental protections)
• Northern Ireland still follows EU rules (to avoid a hard border with Ireland, under the Northern Ireland Protocol / Windsor Framework)
• The UK can make its own laws, but in practice it has not diverged much from EU rules (because businesses want regulatory alignment to trade with the EU)

Example: The UK could scrap EU workers' rights (48-hour working week, paid holiday, maternity leave), but it has not (because they are popular and useful).

4. Trade deals

The UK has signed trade deals with 70+ countries, but none are better than EU membership.

Trade deals signed:

• Australia (0.08% GDP boost over 15 years)
• New Zealand (0.01% GDP boost)
• Japan (0.01% GDP boost)
• CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, 0.08% GDP boost)

Impact:

• Tiny economic benefit (0.1-0.2% GDP boost over 15 years)
• Far smaller than lost EU trade (4% GDP loss)

The Leave campaign promised trade deals with the world would make the UK richer, but the reality is that trade deals with Australia, Japan, etc. are tiny compared to lost EU trade.

5. Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland is the biggest Brexit problem. To avoid a hard border with Ireland (which would violate the Good Friday Agreement), the UK agreed to the Northern Ireland Protocol (later replaced by the Windsor Framework).

Impact:

• Northern Ireland follows EU rules (for goods)
• Customs checks between GB and NI (the "Irish Sea border")
• Unionists are furious (they see this as separating NI from the rest of the UK)

The Northern Ireland Protocol / Windsor Framework is a compromise that satisfies no one — Remainers say it proves Brexit was a mistake, Leavers say it betrays Brexit.

What Did Brexit Cost?

1. Economic cost

Brexit has cost the UK economy £100 billion (4% of GDP) by 2024, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

How:

• Reduced trade (UK-EU trade fell 25%)
• Reduced investment (foreign companies invest less in the UK)
• Reduced productivity (businesses face more red tape, less access to EU workers)

Impact:

• UK is the slowest-growing G7 economy (0.1% growth in 2023 vs 2.5% USA, 1.5% EU)
• Living standards have fallen (real wages down 3% since 2016)
• Tax rises (to fill the £100 billion hole in public finances)

2. Trade cost

UK-EU trade fell 25% after Brexit (2021-2024 vs 2016-2019), costing businesses billions in lost sales, customs costs, and delays.

3. Investment cost

Foreign direct investment (FDI) into the UK fell 30% after Brexit (2021-2024 vs 2016-2019), as foreign companies chose to invest in the EU instead.

4. Inflation cost

Brexit caused inflation (higher prices) by:

• Reducing competition (fewer EU imports)
• Increasing costs (customs checks, tariffs, red tape)
• Weakening the pound (£1 = €1.40 in 2015, £1 = €1.15 in 2024)

Inflation hit 11% in 2022 (highest in 40 years), partly due to Brexit.

What Did Brexit Deliver?

Delivered

1. Left EU institutions (European Parliament, European Commission, European Court of Justice)
2. Ended free movement (replaced with points-based immigration system)
3. Independent trade policy (UK can sign its own trade deals)
4. Sovereignty (UK Parliament makes all laws)

Not delivered

1. £350 million per week for the NHS (the UK still pays the EU £10 billion per year in divorce settlement, and the economy has shrunk by £100 billion, so there is less money for the NHS, not more)
2. Control immigration (immigration rose to record highs)
3. Economic opportunity (Brexit has cost £100 billion, not created opportunity)
4. Better trade deals (trade deals with Australia, Japan, etc. are tiny compared to lost EU trade)
5. Take back control (Northern Ireland still follows EU rules, and 90% of EU regulations remain in UK law)

Was Brexit Worth It?

The economic case: No

Brexit has cost the UK £100 billion (4% of GDP) with no measurable economic benefits. The UK is the slowest-growing G7 economy, living standards have fallen, and there is less money for public services.

The sovereignty case: Debatable

The UK has regained sovereignty over laws, borders, and trade, but:

• 90% of EU regulations remain in UK law (because they are useful)
• Northern Ireland still follows EU rules (to avoid a hard border with Ireland)
• The UK has not diverged much from EU rules (because businesses want regulatory alignment)

So the UK has sovereignty in theory, but not much has changed in practice.

The immigration case: No

Leave voters wanted less immigration, but immigration rose to record highs (745,000 in 2022). Brexit ended EU free movement, but the government replaced it with a points-based system that allows more non-EU immigration.

Public opinion

Polls show 55-60% of people now think Brexit was a mistake (2024), up from 48% who voted Remain in 2016. But 40-45% still think it was the right decision.

Could the UK Rejoin the EU?

Technically yes, politically no.

Rejoining would require:

1. UK application
2. Unanimous approval from 27 EU members
3. UK referendum

The EU would demand the UK:

• Adopt the euro (no rebate, no opt-out)
• Join Schengen (open borders)
• Give up rebates and opt-outs (the UK had special treatment before Brexit, it would not get it again)

This is politically impossible — no UK government would accept these terms, and no UK referendum would approve them.

Labour and Conservatives both rule out rejoining the EU. The UK is stuck with Brexit for a generation, even though most people now think it was a mistake.

The Bottom Line

Brexit cost the UK economy £100 billion (4% of GDP) by 2024 through reduced trade, investment, and productivity, with no measurable economic benefits. UK-EU trade fell 25% after Brexit due to customs checks, paperwork, and tariffs, while immigration rose to record highs (745,000 net in 2022) despite Leave promises. The UK regained sovereignty over laws, borders, and trade, but 90% of EU regulations remain in UK law and Northern Ireland still follows EU rules. Brexit delivered on: leaving EU institutions, ending free movement (replaced with points-based system), and independent trade deals (but none better than EU membership). Brexit failed on: economic growth (UK is slowest-growing G7 economy), immigration control (higher than pre-Brexit), and 'taking back control' (NI Protocol, Windsor Framework). Brexit was sold as an economic opportunity and a way to control immigration, but it has been an economic disaster and immigration has risen to record highs. The UK has regained sovereignty in theory, but not much has changed in practice. Most people now think Brexit was a mistake, but the UK is stuck with it for a generation. Rejoining the EU is politically impossible, so the UK must make the best of Brexit — but 4 years on, there is no evidence that Brexit has made the UK richer, more sovereign, or better off. It has made the UK poorer, more isolated, and more divided.