Venezuela's interim government and opposition to begin formal talks

Venezuela's interim government and the opposition coalition have agreed to begin formal talks aimed at resolving the political crisis that has paralysed the country for more than a decade, in what international mediators are describing as the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since the collapse of the last negotiations.

The talks, which will be hosted by Norway and attended by representatives of the United States, the European Union and several Latin American governments, are expected to address the conditions for free and fair elections, the release of political prisoners, and the lifting of international sanctions that have contributed to one of the most severe economic collapses in modern history.

The agreement to talk is itself a significant concession. The Maduro government has consistently refused to negotiate with what it describes as "puppets of foreign powers," and the opposition has been reluctant to engage with a government it regards as illegitimate. The fact that both sides have agreed to sit down suggests that the calculus has changed — perhaps because of the migration crisis, which has seen more than 8 million Venezuelans leave the country and which is placing unsustainable pressure on neighbouring states.

The obstacles to a genuine agreement remain formidable. The government has used previous negotiations to buy time and reduce international pressure without making meaningful concessions. The opposition is fragmented and weakened, and its negotiating position is undermined by its inability to speak for all of the country's democratic forces. And the international community, while supportive of the talks, is divided on key questions including the timing of sanctions relief and the sequencing of political reforms.

The talks are expected to begin within weeks. The first test will be whether they produce concrete results — the release of prisoners, the registration of opposition candidates, the opening of media access — or whether they become another exercise in diplomatic theatre. The people of Venezuela have seen this before. They are entitled to be sceptical.