We have been lying to young people for 30 years. We told them: "Go to university, get a degree, get a good job." But the reality is: 50% of graduates work in non-graduate jobs 5 years after graduation, earning £25,000–£30,000 — less than plumbers, electricians, or software developers who never went to university and have no debt. Students graduate with £60,000 debt (average for a 3-year degree) for degrees that do not lead to jobs. The graduate premium (extra earnings from a degree) has collapsed from £10,000 per year (2000) to £6,000 per year (2024), while debt has tripled from £20,000 to £60,000. Only STEM, medicine, law, and economics degrees have positive ROI — humanities, arts, and social sciences degrees are financially worthless for most students. Apprenticeships offer better outcomes: earn while you learn, no debt, higher employment rates, and equivalent earnings by age 30. But only 5% of school leavers take apprenticeships, because we have created a culture where university is the default and everything else is failure. It is time to stop lying. University is not worth it for most people, and we need to admit it.

The Numbers: University Is a Bad Investment

Graduate outcomes (5 years after graduation)

50% of graduates work in non-graduate jobs 5 years after graduation (ONS, 2024):

  • Barista (£22,000 per year)
  • Retail assistant (£23,000 per year)
  • Admin assistant (£25,000 per year)
  • Call centre worker (£24,000 per year)

These jobs do not require a degree. A 22-year-old graduate with £60,000 debt earns the same as an 18-year-old school leaver with no debt.

Graduate earnings

Median graduate salary (5 years after graduation): £30,000 (IFS, 2024)

But this hides huge variation:

  • Medicine: £50,000
  • Economics: £45,000
  • Engineering: £40,000
  • Law: £38,000
  • Computer science: £35,000
  • Business: £32,000
  • Social sciences: £28,000
  • Humanities: £26,000
  • Arts: £24,000

Humanities and arts graduates earn less than the national median wage (£33,000), and less than many non-graduates (plumbers £35,000, electricians £38,000, software developers £40,000).

The graduate premium

The graduate premium (extra earnings from a degree) has collapsed:

  • 2000: £10,000 per year (graduates earned £10k more than non-graduates)
  • 2010: £8,000 per year
  • 2020: £7,000 per year
  • 2024: £6,000 per year

Over a 40-year career, the graduate premium is £240,000 (£6,000 × 40 years). But student debt is £60,000, and most graduates repay £30,000–£40,000 over 40 years before write-off.

So the net benefit is £200,000–£210,000 (£240,000 - £30,000–£40,000 repayments). But this is the average — for humanities and arts graduates, the net benefit is zero or negative.

Student debt

Average student debt (3-year degree): £60,000

  • Tuition fees: £27,750 (£9,250 × 3 years)
  • Maintenance loan: £30,681 (£10,227 × 3 years, maximum for living away from home outside London)
  • Interest: Accrues from day one (3.1% per year, RPI + 0%)

Most graduates (60–70%) will never repay in full. The average graduate repays £30,000–£40,000 over 40 years, then £20,000–£30,000 is written off.

But even though most graduates never repay in full, the debt still affects their lives:

  • 9% of earnings above £25,000 is deducted automatically (like a tax)
  • Limits life choices (cannot save for a house, start a business, or take a low-paid job they love)
  • Psychological burden (£60,000 debt is stressful, even if it is written off)

Why University Is No Longer Worth It

1. Degree inflation

In 1990, 15% of young people went to university. In 2024, 50% go to university.

This has caused degree inflation — a degree is now the minimum requirement for jobs that previously did not require one (admin, retail management, marketing assistant).

But the supply of graduate jobs has not kept up with the supply of graduates. So 50% of graduates work in non-graduate jobs.

2. Low-quality degrees

The expansion of higher education has created low-quality degrees at low-quality universities:

  • Media studies at a former polytechnic
  • Sports science at a low-ranked university
  • Business studies at a university with 30% graduate employment rate

These degrees are financially worthless — they do not lead to graduate jobs, and they saddle students with £60,000 debt.

3. Universities as businesses

Universities are businesses that maximise revenue by recruiting as many students as possible, regardless of whether the degree is valuable.

Universities spend £1 billion per year on marketing (glossy brochures, open days, social media ads) to recruit students. They do not care if the degree leads to a job — they care about bums on seats.

4. The graduate job market is saturated

There are not enough graduate jobs for 50% of young people. The graduate job market is saturated, so graduates compete for non-graduate jobs, pushing out non-graduates.

This is a zero-sum game — more graduates does not create more graduate jobs, it just devalues degrees.

5. Apprenticeships are better

Apprenticeships offer better outcomes than university for most people:

  • Earn while you learn (£15,000–£25,000 per year)
  • No debt (employer pays for training)
  • Real skills (on-the-job training, not theory)
  • Higher employment rates (90% of apprentices are employed after completing their apprenticeship)
  • Equivalent earnings by age 30 (apprentices earn the same as graduates by age 30, but with no debt)

But only 5% of school leavers take apprenticeships, because we have created a culture where university is the default and everything else is failure.

The Exceptions: Degrees That Are Worth It

Not all degrees are worthless. STEM, medicine, law, and economics degrees have positive ROI:

1. Medicine

  • Median salary: £50,000 (5 years after graduation)
  • Graduate premium: £20,000 per year (vs non-graduates)
  • ROI: Positive (high earnings justify £60,000 debt)

2. Engineering

  • Median salary: £40,000 (5 years after graduation)
  • Graduate premium: £10,000 per year
  • ROI: Positive

3. Computer science

  • Median salary: £35,000 (5 years after graduation)
  • Graduate premium: £5,000 per year
  • ROI: Marginal (but software developers can earn £40,000+ without a degree, so the degree is not essential)

4. Law

  • Median salary: £38,000 (5 years after graduation)
  • Graduate premium: £8,000 per year
  • ROI: Positive (but only if you become a solicitor or barrister — many law graduates do not)

5. Economics

  • Median salary: £45,000 (5 years after graduation)
  • Graduate premium: £15,000 per year
  • ROI: Positive

But these degrees are the exception, not the rule. Most students study humanities, arts, or social sciences, which have zero or negative ROI.

The Alternative: Apprenticeships

Apprenticeships are a better route for most young people:

How apprenticeships work

  • Age: 16+ (most start at 18)
  • Duration: 1–4 years (depending on level)
  • Pay: £15,000–£25,000 per year (depending on level and employer)
  • Training: On-the-job training + day release or evening classes
  • Qualification: Level 3 (A-level equivalent), Level 4–5 (foundation degree equivalent), Level 6–7 (degree equivalent)

Benefits

  • Earn while you learn (£15,000–£25,000 per year)
  • No debt (employer pays for training)
  • Real skills (on-the-job training, not theory)
  • Higher employment rates (90% of apprentices are employed after completing their apprenticeship)
  • Equivalent earnings by age 30 (apprentices earn the same as graduates by age 30, but with no debt)

Examples

  • Software developer apprenticeship (Level 4, 2 years, £20,000–£30,000 per year) — equivalent to a computer science degree, but you earn £40,000–£60,000 over 2 years instead of paying £60,000 debt
  • Electrician apprenticeship (Level 3, 3 years, £15,000–£20,000 per year) — qualified electricians earn £35,000–£40,000 per year with no debt
  • Accountancy apprenticeship (Level 7, 4 years, £20,000–£30,000 per year) — equivalent to an accountancy degree + professional qualification, but you earn £80,000–£120,000 over 4 years instead of paying £60,000 debt

Why don't more people do apprenticeships?

Because we have created a culture where university is the default and everything else is failure:

  • Schools push university (league tables reward schools for sending students to university, not apprenticeships)
  • Parents push university (they believe university is the only route to success)
  • Employers push university (they use degrees as a filter, even for jobs that do not require one)

Only 5% of school leavers take apprenticeships, compared to 50% who go to university.

The Solution

1. Stop pushing 50% of young people into university

The 50% target (introduced by Tony Blair in 1999) was a mistake. Not everyone needs a degree, and pushing 50% of young people into university has created:

  • Degree inflation (degrees are now the minimum requirement for jobs that do not need them)
  • Low-quality degrees (universities recruit students for revenue, not outcomes)
  • £60,000 debt for degrees that do not lead to jobs

We should aim for 30–35% university participation (like Germany, Switzerland, Netherlands), with the rest doing apprenticeships or entering work.

2. Promote apprenticeships

Apprenticeships should be the default for most young people, not the exception. This requires:

  • Schools promoting apprenticeships (not just university)
  • Employers offering more apprenticeships (government incentives, tax breaks)
  • Parents accepting apprenticeships (cultural shift)

3. Close low-quality universities

Universities with low graduate employment rates (under 60%) should be closed or merged. They are scamming students by taking £60,000 for degrees that do not lead to jobs.

4. Abolish tuition fees for STEM, medicine, and nursing

The UK has a shortage of STEM graduates, doctors, and nurses. Abolishing tuition fees for these degrees would encourage more students to study them, and it would be a better use of public money than subsidising humanities degrees.

5. Introduce vocational degrees

Germany has dual education (vocational degrees that combine university and work). The UK should introduce similar degrees (e.g., engineering degrees with 2 years in university + 2 years in industry).

The Bottom Line

50% of graduates work in non-graduate jobs 5 years after graduation, earning less than apprentices who started working at 18 with no debt. Average student debt is £60,000 (3-year degree) but most graduates never repay in full — it's a graduate tax, not real debt, but it still limits life choices. Graduate premium (extra earnings from a degree) has collapsed from £10,000/year (2000) to £6,000/year (2024), while debt has tripled from £20,000 to £60,000. Only STEM, medicine, law, and economics degrees have positive ROI — humanities, arts, and social sciences degrees are financially worthless for most students. Apprenticeships offer better outcomes: earn while you learn, no debt, higher employment rates, and equivalent earnings by age 30 — but only 5% of school leavers take them. We have been lying to young people for 30 years. University is not worth it for most people, and we need to admit it. The 50% target was a mistake, degree inflation has devalued degrees, and low-quality universities are scamming students. Apprenticeships are a better route for most young people, but we have created a culture where university is the default and everything else is failure. It is time to stop lying. We need to promote apprenticeships, close low-quality universities, and stop pushing 50% of young people into £60,000 debt for degrees that do not lead to jobs.