Erik ten Hag enters his third season as Manchester United manager under intense pressure to deliver Champions League qualification and show clear signs of tactical progress after a disastrous 2023-24 campaign that saw United finish 8th in the Premier League — their worst league finish in 34 years. Ten Hag won two trophies in his first two seasons (the League Cup in 2023 and the FA Cup in 2024), but United's league form has been inconsistent, their tactical identity remains unclear, and several expensive signings have failed to deliver. The club's new ownership structure, led by INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe, conducted a post-season review in June 2024 and considered replacing Ten Hag with Thomas Tuchel, Mauricio Pochettino, or Gareth Southgate before deciding to give the Dutch manager one more season. But the message was clear: top four is the minimum expectation for 2024-25. If United finish outside the Champions League places again, Ten Hag will be sacked, regardless of cup success. Here is a comprehensive analysis of Ten Hag's tenure so far, the challenges he faces in 2024-25, and whether he can turn United into title contenders or whether he will become another failed post-Ferguson manager.
The Ten Hag Era So Far: Two Trophies, But No Consistency
Erik ten Hag was appointed Manchester United manager in May 2022 after three successful years at Ajax, where he won three Eredivisie titles and reached the 2019 Champions League semi-finals. United's owners, the Glazer family, identified Ten Hag as the man to restore the club to the top of English football after a decade of underachievement following Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement in 2013.
Season 1 (2022-23): Promising Start
Ten Hag's first season was a success by United's recent standards:
- League finish: 3rd (75 points)
- Trophies: League Cup (beat Newcastle 2-0 in final)
- Top scorer: Marcus Rashford (17 league goals, 30 in all competitions)
- Key signings: Casemiro (£60m), Lisandro Martínez (£57m), Antony (£86m)
United finished 3rd and qualified for the Champions League for the first time since 2021. They won the League Cup — their first trophy since 2017 — and Rashford had a career-best season. Ten Hag implemented a 4-2-3-1 system with Casemiro and Christian Eriksen as the double pivot, Rashford on the left wing, and Bruno Fernandes as the number 10.
However, there were warning signs:
- United were knocked out of the Europa League in the quarter-finals by Sevilla (losing 3-0 at home)
- They lost 7-0 at Liverpool in March 2023 — their worst defeat in 92 years
- They relied heavily on Rashford's goals — when he didn't score, United struggled to create chances
Season 2 (2023-24): Collapse
Ten Hag's second season was a disaster:
- League finish: 8th (60 points) — worst since 1990
- Trophies: FA Cup (beat Manchester City 2-1 in final)
- Top scorer: Rasmus Højlund (10 league goals)
- Goals conceded: 58 (most by any team in the top half)
United won only 18 of 38 league matches and finished 8th — below Newcastle, Chelsea, Brighton, and West Ham. They were eliminated from the Champions League in the group stage (finishing bottom of their group with 4 points from 6 matches) and exited the League Cup in the fourth round.
The only bright spot was the FA Cup, where United beat Liverpool (4-3 in extra time), Coventry (on penalties after blowing a 3-0 lead), and Manchester City (2-1 in the final) to win the trophy. This FA Cup triumph saved Ten Hag's job — INEOS had prepared to sack him before the final, but the victory bought him one more season.
What Went Wrong in 2023-24?
United's 8th-place finish was caused by multiple factors:
1. Catastrophic Injury Crisis
United suffered 45 separate injuries to first-team players in 2023-24, the most in the Premier League. Key players missed extended periods:
- Lisandro Martínez (centre-back): 20 games missed
- Luke Shaw (left-back): 25 games missed
- Tyrell Malacia (left-back): entire season (knee injury)
- Mason Mount (midfielder): 22 games missed
- Casemiro (midfielder): 12 games missed
United were forced to play Sofyan Amrabat (a defensive midfielder) at left-back and Harry Maguire and Jonny Evans (35 years old) as the centre-back partnership for long periods.
2. Tactical Confusion
Ten Hag switched formations repeatedly in 2023-24, using 4-2-3-1, 4-3-3, and 3-5-2 at different points. This created defensive disorganisation — United conceded 58 league goals, the most by any team finishing in the top half.
The main tactical issue was the gap between defence and midfield. Ten Hag instructed his team to press high, but when the press was broken, there was a 20-30 yard gap between the defensive line and the midfielders, allowing opponents to exploit the space. United conceded numerous goals from counter-attacks and transitions.
3. Individual Errors and Underperformance
Several key players underperformed in 2023-24:
- Marcus Rashford — 8 league goals (vs 17 in 2022-23)
- Casemiro — declined sharply, lost pace and mobility
- Antony — £86m signing scored 1 league goal in 29 appearances
- Jadon Sancho — exiled after public dispute with Ten Hag in September 2023
André Onana, the £47m goalkeeper signed from Inter Milan, made high-profile errors early in the season (including a mistake in the Champions League against Galatasaray that cost United qualification).
4. Lack of Goals
United scored only 57 league goals in 2023-24 — the fewest by any team finishing in the top 8. They relied on Rasmus Højlund (a 20-year-old striker signed for £72m) and Bruno Fernandes, but lacked consistent goal threats from wide areas.
The Summer 2024 Rebuild: £200m+ Spent
INEOS, led by Sir Jim Ratcliffe, took control of Manchester United's football operations in February 2024 and immediately began restructuring the club. They appointed Dan Ashworth (sporting director from Newcastle) and Jason Wilcox (technical director from Southampton) to oversee recruitment and conducted a post-season review of Ten Hag's performance.
After considering replacements, INEOS decided to give Ten Hag one more season — but backed him with the most expensive transfer window in United's history.
Key Signings (Summer 2024)
- Centre-back — £50m+ signing to partner Lisandro Martínez
- Left-back — £40m+ signing to replace the injured Tyrell Malacia
- Central midfielder — £60m+ signing to replace the declining Casemiro
- Striker — £50m+ signing to provide competition for Højlund
Total spend: £200m+
INEOS also sold or released underperforming players:
- Jadon Sancho — loaned to Chelsea (with option to buy)
- Donny van de Beek — sold to Girona (£500,000)
- Anthony Martial — released (contract expired)
- Raphaël Varane — released (contract expired)
The squad overhaul is the most significant since Ten Hag's first summer in 2022.
The Tactical Challenge: Finding a Clear Identity
Ten Hag's biggest challenge in 2024-25 is to implement a clear tactical identity. At Ajax, he played a possession-based 4-3-3 with high pressing and quick transitions. At United, he has struggled to replicate this system due to:
- Lack of technical quality — United's players are not as comfortable in possession as Ajax's
- Physical demands — the Premier League is more intense than the Eredivisie, making high pressing harder to sustain
- Squad imbalance — United have too many number 10s (Fernandes, Mount, Eriksen) and not enough wingers or strikers
Expected System for 2024-25
Ten Hag is expected to use a 4-3-3 system with:
- Goalkeeper: André Onana
- Defence: New left-back, Lisandro Martínez, new centre-back, Diogo Dalot
- Midfield: New midfielder, Kobbie Mainoo, Bruno Fernandes
- Attack: Amad Diallo, Rasmus Højlund, Marcus Rashford
This system will allow United to:
- Control possession through the midfield three
- Press high with the front three
- Transition quickly from defence to attack
However, the system requires consistency — Ten Hag must stick with this formation and give players time to adapt, rather than switching systems every few weeks.
The Make-or-Break Season: What Ten Hag Must Achieve
The 2024-25 season will determine Ten Hag's future at Manchester United. INEOS have made clear that top four is the minimum expectation. If United finish outside the Champions League places, Ten Hag will be sacked.
Minimum Targets for 2024-25
- Premier League: Top 4 (Champions League qualification)
- Champions League: Round of 16 (avoid group stage elimination like 2023-24)
- FA Cup / League Cup: Semi-finals
Stretch Targets
- Premier League: 2nd (title challenge)
- Champions League: Quarter-finals
- FA Cup / League Cup: Winners
Key Challenges
- Integrating new signings — United have signed 4-5 new players who need time to adapt
- Managing fixture congestion — the new Champions League format adds extra matches
- Improving defensive organisation — United cannot concede 58 goals again
- Getting goals from wide areas — Rashford and Antony must improve their output
The Verdict: Can Ten Hag Succeed?
Erik ten Hag has the credentials to succeed at Manchester United — he won three Eredivisie titles at Ajax and has won two trophies in two seasons at United. But he has also shown tactical naivety (the 7-0 loss at Liverpool, the defensive disorganisation in 2023-24) and has failed to get the best out of expensive signings like Antony and Sancho.
The 2024-25 season will show whether Ten Hag can:
- Implement a clear tactical system and stick with it
- Improve United's defensive organisation and reduce goals conceded
- Get consistent performances from key players like Rashford, Casemiro, and Antony
- Integrate new signings and build a cohesive squad
If Ten Hag can achieve these goals, United can finish top four and challenge for trophies. If he fails, he will be sacked by Christmas, and United will appoint their sixth permanent manager since Sir Alex Ferguson retired in 2013.
Prediction: United will finish 4th and reach the FA Cup final, but will not challenge for the title. Ten Hag will survive the season, but 2025-26 will be his final chance to deliver a title challenge.
The Bottom Line
Ten Hag won two trophies in two seasons (League Cup 2023, FA Cup 2024) but United finished 8th in 2023-24 with 60 points - their worst Premier League finish since 1990. United's summer 2024 transfer window was the most expensive in their history (£200m+ spent) with signings in defence, midfield, and attack to address squad weaknesses. The tactical system remains unclear - Ten Hag has switched between 4-2-3-1, 4-3-3, and 3-5-2 without finding a consistent identity, leading to defensive fragility (58 goals conceded in 2023-24).
Key players underperformed in 2023-24: Rashford (8 league goals vs 17 in 2022-23), Casemiro (declined sharply), Antony (£86m signing scored 1 league goal), and Sancho (exiled after public dispute). The 2024-25 season is make-or-break - United must finish top four and show clear tactical progress, or Ten Hag will be sacked despite winning two trophies in two years. INEOS have backed Ten Hag with significant investment, but patience is running out. This is his final chance to prove he can turn Manchester United into title contenders.
Frequently asked questions
Why did Manchester United finish 8th in 2023-24 despite winning the FA Cup?
United's league form collapsed in 2023-24 due to a combination of factors: catastrophic injury crisis (Martinez, Shaw, Malacia, Mount all missed 20+ games), tactical confusion (Ten Hag switched systems repeatedly), individual errors (Onana made high-profile mistakes early in the season), and poor performances from key players (Rashford scored 8 league goals vs 17 the previous season, Casemiro declined sharply). United conceded 58 league goals - the most by any team finishing in the top half - and won only 18 of 38 matches. They were saved from a worse finish by their FA Cup run, beating Liverpool, Coventry (on penalties), and Manchester City in the final.
What is Erik ten Hag's tactical philosophy at Manchester United?
Ten Hag's tactical identity at United remains unclear after two seasons. At Ajax, he played a possession-based 4-3-3 with high pressing and quick transitions. At United, he has switched between 4-2-3-1 (his most common formation), 4-3-3, and 3-5-2 depending on opposition and available players. His stated aim is to create a team that can 'transition quickly from defence to attack' and 'dominate possession in the opponent's half', but United have struggled to do either consistently. They averaged 54% possession in 2023-24 (8th in the league) and conceded 58 goals due to defensive disorganisation. The 2024-25 season will show whether Ten Hag can implement a clear tactical system or whether he will continue to adapt reactively.
Will Erik ten Hag be sacked if Manchester United don't finish top four in 2024-25?
Almost certainly yes. Ten Hag survived the 2023-24 season only because United won the FA Cup (beating Manchester City 2-1 in the final). The club's new ownership structure (INEOS, led by Sir Jim Ratcliffe, took control of football operations in February 2024) conducted a post-season review and considered replacing Ten Hag with Thomas Tuchel, Mauricio Pochettino, and Gareth Southgate before deciding to give him one more season. However, INEOS made clear that top four is the minimum expectation for 2024-25. If United finish outside the Champions League places again, Ten Hag will be sacked, regardless of cup success. The club cannot afford to miss Champions League revenue for consecutive seasons.